This guide is written for solicitors, trainees and law students in England and Wales.
The Sentencing Act progression model comes into force on 1 October 2026, changing automatic release points for standard determinate sentences. Rape, serious child sex offences and grooming offences were excluded on 4 August 2026, adding 39 offences to a list that already covered more than 18,000 offenders. This tracker records the position as it stands and the dates still to come.
What is the progression model?
A change to the point at which an offender serving a standard determinate sentence is automatically released, coupled with a mechanism removing automatic release altogether from those who behave badly in custody. It applies to that sentence type alone, which is why the first question on any file is what sentence was actually imposed rather than what the offence was. Both questions now matter.
Some offenders were never affected at all. Offenders serving life sentences, extended determinate sentences and other more serious sentence types were never in scope. The Ministry of Justice puts that pre-existing group at more than 18,000. The offence-based exclusions published on 4 August sit on top of that.
The sentence imposed by the court does not change. What changes is the fraction of the custodial term served before automatic release, which is why the distinction matters when advising on likely time served rather than on sentence length.
The exclusions operate at two levels, and conflating them produces the wrong answer. Sentence-type exclusions were built into the model from the start and remove whole categories of offender regardless of what they were convicted of. Offence-based exclusions, which are what changed on 4 August, remove offenders by reference to the offence of conviction even though they are serving the standard determinate sentence the model would otherwise catch.
Who this tracker is for
Defence practitioners advising on plea, mitigation and likely release dates across the commencement boundary, and anyone dealing with licence conditions or recall. It is equally relevant to prison law practitioners and to those advising victims on contact arrangements, where the timetable rather than the arithmetic is the live question.
This tracker records mechanism and dates rather than evaluating the policy behind them.
How do the release points change?
| Sentence type | Automatic release point before 1 Oct 2026 | From 1 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard determinate sentence, 40% release point | 40% | One third |
| Standard determinate sentence, 50% release point | 50% | One third |
| Standard determinate sentence, two-thirds release point | Two thirds | One half |
| Extended determinate sentence | Unchanged | Excluded from the model |
| Life sentence | Unchanged | Excluded from the model |
| Standard determinate sentence for a listed sexual or child sex offence | Unchanged | Excluded from 4 August 2026 |
Separately, an offender who breaks the rules or is violent in custody can be required to serve the whole of the custodial term. That is the progression element and it operates regardless of the fraction that would otherwise apply, which means the earlier release point in the table is a ceiling on the benefit rather than a date an offender can rely on. How that determination is made, and whether it attracts any right of review, is the part of the scheme on which the published material says least.
The release points change on a fixed date, so advice given on likely time served needs to state which regime it assumes. The exclusions are settled and can be checked against statutory references rather than category descriptions. What is not settled is volume: the number released in each tranche after commencement will depend on the prison population at implementation, so timing advice on a particular case should not assume a fixed cohort.
Which offences are excluded?
Thirty-nine, drawn from six statutes, with inchoate liability for each of them added on top. The list is offence-based, so eligibility turns on the offence of conviction rather than on a category label, and that is the distinction which decides most borderline cases. The list is closed.
| Statute | Offences excluded | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual Offences Act 1956 | 10 | ss 1, 5, 6, 10, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28 |
| Indecency with Children Act 1960 | 1 | s 1(1) |
| Criminal Law Act 1977 | 1 | s 54 |
| Protection of Children Act 1978 | 1 | s 1(1) |
| Criminal Justice Act 1988 | 1 | s 160(1) |
| Sexual Offences Act 2003 | 25 | ss 1, 5 to 19, 25, 26, 47 to 50 |
Two points on scope. The 1956 Act contributes ten exclusions, so historic convictions are treated on the same footing as convictions under the 2003 Act, and the list reaches the abduction and procuration offences at sections 19, 20 and 23 rather than stopping at the principal offences. Within the 2003 Act, sections 8A, 8B and 8C are included alongside the under-13 offences at sections 5 to 8, and the abuse of position of trust offences at sections 16 to 19 are covered.
Inchoate liability is dealt with as a block rather than a separate schedule. Attempt, conspiracy, incitement, offences under Part 2 of the Serious Crime Act 2007, and aiding, abetting, counselling or procuring are all excluded where they relate to a listed offence.
Timeline
| Date | Event | Status |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | Original commencement date for the progression model | Superseded |
| Early August 2026 | Commencement paused pending review | Complete |
| 4 August 2026 | Review concluded; 39 offence-based exclusions published; commencement moved to 1 October | Complete |
| By October 2026 | Dedicated victim helpline to be available | Pending |
| 1 October 2026 | Progression model in force; new release points apply | Pending |
| September 2026 | Parliament returns from summer recess | Pending |
Note that 1 October 2026 is a crowded date. It is also when the Business and Property Division replaces the Chancery Division, and firms with both criminal and commercial practices will be managing two unrelated commencements in the same week.
Licence and supervision measures
- Near real-time electronic monitoring data provided to probation staff to track offender movements.
- Alerts warning offenders when they risk breaching an exclusion zone.
- £100m of additional funding so that prison leavers are tagged on release and banned from attending public events, pubs and clubs.
- A wider £700m investment in probation and community punishment, including 1,300 additional probation officers.
None of this is on the face of the Act. The published material announces these measures rather than setting out the statutory route for each. Which are licence conditions capable of challenge or variation, and which are operational arrangements between probation and the prison service, is not yet clear from the sources, and that detail should be expected before commencement.
Victim contact
Part of the reason for the delay is victim contact. The Ministry of Justice describes the pause as being partly to ensure more victims are informed and, where they can be reached, have a say on licence conditions including exclusion zones. A dedicated helpline is to be available by October for those affected by the reforms.
That affects the timetable rather than eligibility, because release dates turn on the sentence imposed and the exclusion list rather than on the progress of the consultation exercise running alongside them.
What should practitioners do before 1 October?
Four things, and the first is the one most easily missed because it looks like a filing exercise rather than an advice risk.
Identify the cases where advice has already been given. Anyone advised on likely time served between the original September announcement and now was advised against a moving target, first because commencement was paused and then because the exclusion list grew. A case sentenced in September and a case sentenced in October are on different arithmetic.
Check the offence of conviction against the statutory reference. The exclusion list names sections rather than categories, and it reaches offences that a category description would not obviously capture, including the abduction and procuration offences in the 1956 Act.
State the assumption in writing. Advice on release given before commencement should record which regime it assumes and that the position changes on 1 October, which costs a sentence and removes an obvious complaint. It is cheap insurance.
Watch for the licence condition detail. The tagging, exclusion zone and monitoring measures have been announced rather than set out in a statutory framework, and the route by which each is imposed determines whether it can be challenged or varied.
Common mistakes
Treating the change as a sentencing discount. It operates on the automatic release point rather than on the sentence the court imposes, so nothing about the headline term a client is told in the dock has altered. The term is the term.
Advising by offence category rather than by section. The exclusion list is offence-based and specific, so a description such as “a child sex offence” does not answer the question and only the statutory reference will.
Assuming historic convictions fall outside it. Ten Sexual Offences Act 1956 offences are on the list, so a conviction under the older statute is treated on the same footing as its modern equivalent.
Giving a firm release date for a case near the boundary. Tranche sizes after commencement will depend on the prison population at implementation, which is a variable outside the control of anyone advising on an individual case.
Official sources
- Sentencing Act offence exclusions, Ministry of Justice, 4 August 2026
- Announcement of the exclusions, 4 August 2026
Related reading: our report on the pause in commencement, the AGFS fee consultation closing on 26 August, and the rethink on jury trial restrictions.
Date last updated
7 August 2026. Next scheduled review: 15 September 2026, ahead of commencement on 1 October, and again in the week following commencement.